Last month, President Emmanuel Macron justified his decision to call for snap legislative elections, emphasizing that France needed a “clarification” of its political landscape. However, following the final ballots cast on Monday, the situation remains far from clear.
The nationwide vote for the 577 seats in the National Assembly, France’s primary legislative body, has resulted in no party securing a working majority. This leaves unresolved the critical questions of who might become the next prime minister, who will form the new government, and what direction the country will take.
Three significant blocs have emerged from the elections, but none has secured enough seats to govern alone, and all are likely too antagonistic to collaborate effectively. None of these blocs have achieved the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, which would allow them to form a stable government capable of withstanding no-confidence votes.
The New Popular Front, a coalition of left-wing parties including the Greens, the Communists, the Socialists, and the hard-left France Unbowed party, secured approximately 180 seats. Macron’s centrist allies came in second with around 160 seats, and the ‘far-right’, anti-immigration National Rally and its partners followed with about 140 seats.
Following Sunday's vote, numerous Trump supporters criticized the results, drawing parallels to the 2020 and upcoming 2024 U.S. elections and accusing Macron of manipulating the system to keep the far right out of power.
For instance, Catturd, a conservative social media influencer with over 2.5 million followers on X (formerly Twitter), accused the French government of electoral fraud, similar to claims made about the U.S. elections. David Sacks, a venture capitalist supporting Trump, echoed these sentiments, suggesting that Macron and the far-left employed every strategy to prevent Marine Le Pen’s victory, advising Republicans not to become complacent.
France’s two-round electoral system typically produces absolute majorities dominated by a single party aligned with the president. Hence, Sunday’s outcome is quite unusual.
One pre-election possibility, given the expected strong performance by the ‘far-right’, was cohabitation. This occurs when the president must appoint a prime minister from a rival party that has won an absolute majority. However, since no party has such a majority, Macron is not immediately compelled to appoint a prime minister from the opposition.
Leaders of the New Popular Front argue that, having secured the most seats, Macron should appoint one of their members as prime minister to form a cabinet. However, they are about 100 seats short of an absolute majority needed to withstand no-confidence votes from other parties.
It is improbable that Macron would choose a prime minister from the ‘far-right’ National Rally or the far-left France Unbowed, both labeled as “extremes” by Macron and other political groups. While he might reach out to parties within the New Popular Front that share some common ground with his centrist alliance, these parties have shown little interest in cooperating with him.
Macron could appoint anyone who reflects a political consensus in the National Assembly, even someone who is not a lawmaker. Some analysts suggest forming a broad coalition encompassing parties from the three main blocs to agree on a prime minister and a limited political agenda. However, this is challenging given the current political climate.
Another possibility is forming a nonpartisan cabinet of experts to run the country temporarily while a coalition deal is negotiated, but this is an unfamiliar approach for France.
Legally, there is no constitutional deadline for appointing a prime minister and forming a government. Gabriel Attal, Macron’s current prime minister, offered his resignation on Monday, as is customary after legislative elections, but Macron asked him to stay on to ensure “stability,” especially with the Paris Summer Olympics approaching.
Prolonged gridlock will hinder France’s ability to pass a budget in the fall and enact crucial legislation. Macron cannot call another election soon, as the Constitution requires at least a year to pass after a snap election before calling another one. This means the newly elected National Assembly will remain in place until then, and lawmakers can file multiple no-confidence motions without fear of being sent back to the polls.
