President Trump is leading Kamala Harris in key Sun Belt states, according to a New York Times/Siena poll released on Monday. Trump has surged ahead in Arizona, where he now leads Harris by five points, polling at 50% to Harris' 45% among likely voters. He also maintains a lead in Georgia by four points and in North Carolina by two points, the poll shows.
While Trump holds the advantage, a significant portion of voters in these states identify as independents. On average, 31% of likely voters in the Sun Belt consider themselves Democrats, 33% identify as Republicans, and 31% say they are independents.
Top issues for these voters include the economy and immigration, cited by 26% and 16% of respondents, respectively. When asked which candidate they trust more to handle these concerns, 50% of likely voters said they trust Trump, while 46% favored Harris.
Harris, who has been referred to as the Border Czar, faces scrutiny for the over 10 million migrant encounters recorded nationwide under her watch. This includes more than 8 million encounters on the southern border alone during the Biden-Harris administration, according to U.S. Customs and Border Patrol.
Economic struggles, including inflation and rising national debt, remain a dominant issue. The national debt hit $35 trillion for the first time in U.S. history this July, and initiatives like the American Rescue Plan and Inflation Reduction Act are seen as contributing factors. The American Rescue Plan approved $1.9 trillion in spending, while the Inflation Reduction Act added $750 billion.
Despite Trump's lead, both candidates face high unfavorable ratings across the Sun Belt. Trump holds a 47% favorability rating and a 50% unfavorability rating, while Harris polls at 46% favorability and 51% unfavorability.
Across Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, fewer than one-third of likely voters believe the country is on the right track. Roughly two-thirds say the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction, a sentiment shared across various demographic groups, according to the poll.
The NYT/Siena poll surveyed 2,077 likely voters in the three states between Sept. 17 and Sept. 21, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5%.
