President Trump’s lead in the 2024 presidential race has expanded following Biden’s weak debate performance last week. A new poll by The New York Times and Siena College shows growing concerns among Democrats and independent voters about Biden’s age and ability to govern.
Trump now holds a 49 percent to 43 percent advantage over Biden among likely voters nationwide, a three-point increase from before the debate. This marks Trump’s largest lead in a Times/Siena poll since 2015. Among registered voters, Trump’s lead is even wider at 49 percent to 41 percent.
The poll highlights widespread and increasing doubts about Biden’s age and capability, with a majority of every demographic and ideological group, including Black voters and people that still plan to vote for Biden, believing that the 81-year-old is too old to govern effectively. Overall, 74 percent of voters consider Biden too old for the job, a five-point increase since the debate.
Concerns about Biden’s age have surged among Democrats to 59 percent and among independent voters to 79 percent. The poll reflects what many Democrats feared: Biden’s poor debate performance has further endangered his reelection prospects. Some Democratic lawmakers and donors are questioning Biden’s fitness and are demanding he demonstrate his capability to serve a full term.
Despite more voters preferring Biden to remain the Democratic nominee, this is largely because more Republicans now want him as an opponent. The poll shows that 50 percent of voters believe Biden’s age severely limits his ability to handle the presidency, including 55 percent of independents.
The CNN debate in Atlanta had a significant impact, with 60 percent of viewers believing Trump outperformed Biden, compared to 22 percent who thought Biden outperformed Trump. Only 16 percent of voters said Biden performed well, with a mere 3 percent rating his performance as very good. Even among Democrats, only one-third thought Biden did well, in contrast to 89 percent of Republicans who praised Trump.
The debate was watched live by over 50 million Americans, with 59 percent of voters tuning in. Among those who watched clips or heard about the debate afterward, 80 percent felt Biden was too old, compared to around 70 percent of those who watched live or not at all.
The poll also indicates that more voters consider re-electing Biden a risky choice for the country, with 63 percent expressing this view compared to 56 percent for Trump. Among Democrats, roughly one in four see Biden as a risky choice.
Voters also view Trump’s presidency more favorably than Biden’s. Only 34 percent believe Biden has improved the country, while 47 percent say the same about Trump’s tenure. Across nearly all demographic groups, more voters feel Biden has made the country worse rather than better, with Black voters being a notable exception. 50 percent of voters believe Trump would better handle the country’s most pressing issues compared to 39 percent for Biden.
