Discussions about ending the war with Russia have intensified, becoming a focal point in speeches by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his team.
“In the end, everything will come down to the personal relationship between Zelenskyy and Trump,” a government source explained before their phone conversation Saturday.
The Ukrainian government plans to continue intensive diplomatic efforts in the coming months before the U.S. elections and the inauguration in January 2025. Zelenskyy has been very active internationally, attending summits and bilateral meetings to secure long-term funds and weapons, and to promote Ukraine’s vision for ending the war, including NATO integration.
The central question about Trump’s potential return is when and how peace negotiations with Russia might begin. Zelenskyy hinted that the active phase of the war could end this year and that Ukraine might regain some territories through diplomacy.
The term “negotiations” is now more common in Ukrainian media, marking a shift from last year when it was taboo. Although details are scarce, the concept is being normalized. A Razumkov Center survey shows 44% of Ukrainians believe it's time for negotiations, while 35% disagree. However, 61% oppose concessions to Russia.
The government stresses diplomacy but insists on no territorial concessions and upholding Zelenskyy’s peace formula, including Ukraine's 1991 borders. Sources assure RBC-Ukraine there are no plans for territorial concessions and that the frequent mention of negotiations is not a campaign aimed at the Ukrainian audience.
Russia might consider returning to the Istanbul agreements of 2022 but still demands “denazification” and demilitarization. Boris Johnson mentioned the Russian language in his peace plan for Ukraine, describing how Trump might handle peace talks if elected. Putin’s demands have reportedly narrowed to NATO membership, territories, and frozen assets.
Ukraine’s plans for the next few months include organizing a second peace summit before Trump possibly takes office. Direct negotiations with Russia are rejected, with agreements only possible through intermediaries like Turkey and the UN.
Ukraine must deal with the current U.S. administration, which also lacks a specific plan for Ukraine. Biden’s team focuses on “escalation management,” providing just enough weapons to avoid provoking Moscow excessively.
Ukraine has lifted many American red lines in the past two years, including obtaining Patriot systems. The next major goal is lifting the ban on strikes on Russian rear areas with American weapons. There is cautious optimism that this ban might be lifted eventually.
Biden’s potential withdrawal from the presidential race could also benefit Ukraine, as a non-campaigning president might make several crucial decisions before leaving office.
