The US and Saudi Arabia have crafted a series of agreements on security and technology-sharing, which were meant to include Israel and the Palestinians. Yet, with no ceasefire in Gaza and Netanyahu’s government staunchly opposing the establishment of a Palestinian state while also appearing determined to launch an offensive on Rafah, the Saudis are advocating for a more modest plan B that does not involve the Israelis.
Under this option, the US and Saudi Arabia would enter into agreements on a bilateral defense pact, US assistance in developing a Saudi civil nuclear energy industry, and high-level collaboration in artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies. Israel would also be offered normalization of diplomatic relations with Riyadh in exchange for its acceptance of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Arab conflict spanning 76 years. However, under Riyadh’s proposed plan B, the finalization of the US-Saudi agreements would not hinge on approval from the Netanyahu government.
The Biden administration may not achieve the historic regional settlement it has been pursuing in the aftermath of the Gaza war, at least not immediately. However, it could solidify a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia that helps counteract the growing influence of China and Russia in the region.
Whether the administration, let alone Congress, would be willing to accept such a “less-for-less” outcome remains uncertain.
In remarks made in Riyadh on Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated the connection between a US-Saudi agreement, Saudi-Israeli normalization, and progress toward a Palestinian state.
Initially, the US-Saudi deal would be negotiated independently of developments in Israel and the occupied territories. However, a formal offer would be extended to Israel, proposing Saudi normalization— a significant Israeli foreign policy objective—in exchange for “irrevocable” steps towards establishing a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank.
According to reliable sources, the nuclear component of the US-Saudi agreement could permit Riyadh to operate a conversion plant capable of converting refined uranium powder into gas. However, Saudi Arabia would not initially be authorized to enrich uranium gas on its own soil, a critical limitation aimed at preventing the development of nuclear weapons.
As part of the separate US-Saudi agreement, a defense pact would be established between the two nations. A component of this deal would entail the relaxation of US export controls on computer chips used in AI development tools, which is a crucial aspect of Saudi Arabia's ambitions to establish itself as the leading high-tech center in the region.
All three components of the proposed deal entail the US providing critical strategic assistance to enhance Saudi security. Rather than focusing on advancements in Israeli-Palestinian peace, the Saudi monarchy is positioning a purely bilateral agreement as a victory for the US in its endeavors to counter Iranian expansionism and in Washington's broader competition with great powers, notably China.
