Most Americans believe Trump trial outcome will not influence votes

by | May 30, 2024

According to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, most Americans believe the outcome of President Trump’s hush money trial in New York will not significantly influence their voting decisions for the 2024 presidential election.

The poll indicates that 67% of respondents would not alter their vote based on a guilty verdict, and 76% said the same for a not guilty verdict.

Approximately 17% of voters mentioned that a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump. This sentiment is more pronounced among certain demographics, including a quarter of nonwhite voters, 20% of voters earning less than $50,000 annually, and 20% of those under 45 years old.

Conversely, a not-guilty verdict would positively influence some voters. Nearly 20% of voters under 45, nonwhite voters, and those earning less than $50,000 a year indicated they would be more inclined to support Trump if he were acquitted.

Small percentages of Trump’s core voter base expressed that a guilty verdict could decrease their likelihood of voting for him. This includes 17% of those living in small towns, 14% of whites without college degrees, 11% of rural residents, and 10% of Republicans. Additionally, 11% of independents said a guilty verdict would deter them from voting for Trump.

The poll results suggest that the trial's outcome will likely have a minimal impact on the majority of voters.

This latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll also highlights the extent of Biden’s challenges among younger voters.

Younger voters have been a vital demographic for Democrats for decades, however these survey results indicate that Biden is struggling to maintain support within these groups.

In the 2020 election, voters aged 18-29 constituted about one-sixth of the electorate, with Biden ‘winning’ this group by more than 20 points, according to exit polls. He also secured voters under 45, who made up 40% of the electorate, by double-digit margins.

As indicated by the poll, younger voters express disapproval of Biden's performance. They harbor lukewarm sentiments towards him, question his mental fitness for the presidency, and believe he is not effectively addressing key issues such as the economy, immigration, and the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Among those aged 18-29, only 24% approve of Biden's job performance, while a significant majority, 62%, hold an unfavorable opinion of him.

President Trump receives a net-positive rating among this age group, with 49% viewing him favorably compared to 42% unfavorably. This favorable rating for Trump is the highest among all age groups.

 

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